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Impact of Untimely Climate Change on Agriculture and Supply Chain System

Agriculture is one of the most important sectors of the Economy. With a contribution of 15.4% to the overall Gross Domestic Product of India valuing around 371.5 Billion USD, India is regarded as being the 2nd largest producer of agricultural goods. Moreover, it is also the main source of income for many rural families and individuals, striving to feed 1.2 Billion people residing within the political boundaries of the nation.

Unfortunately, the drastic and untimely changes in the climate conditions have put a major dent on the productivity of this sector. Lots and lots of changes and regulations have been introduced to tackle the same with no avail to counteract the growing threat year on year. According to the research and estimates, a whopping 5–6% decline in the overall productivity between 2010–2039 and a 25% decline between the periods 2070–2099. This threat has been exquisitely identified by the increasing number of droughts and famines in the farmlands and subsequent increase in prices of the available commodities.

The major affect of such will be on both the livestock and the crops produce. Drastic changes in temperature and rainfall can have serious deleterious effects by inhibiting the growth of many useful crops during a particular period. With farmers seeing a decline in such produce, it is only natural that they will rather shift to other modes and options of crops for better yields and revenues. This in turn will create a rippling effect over the produce of those common crops that have been rendered unproductive. Attack of fungi and bacteria that thrive more in extreme temperatures will duly add to the woes which in turn increases the cost of irrigation and more increased use of chemical fertilizers. These in turn reduces the soil fertility and increased CO2 pollution in the longer runs and thus proliferates into a vicious cycle of being the perpetrator and victim to the same common cause.

Both the aquatic and terrestrial livestock will be easily victimised due to above problems. The onset of Global Warming that directly has weathered down the normal cycle of seasons and climatic structure, the decrease in agricultural foliage/grains will take a direct toll on the mortality rates of animals. Heat waves across many parts of the world have been known to append the incline of parasites and diseases. Climate induced changes such as increased use of insecticides/pesticides, loss of productivity, growing attacks of parasites and diseases and water shortage/floods/droughts will finally culminate towards massive decrease in survival rate of the overall livestock.

Global Supply chains will eventually crumble in response to decreased availability of commodities as mentioned earlier. Increased supply-demand mismatch with low affordability will increase numerous folds in the coming decade. Consumers have already started to see the effects of the paucity of various exotic products that are almost with near zero supply rates. Governments have collaborated with various private contractors and startups to developing a sustainable supply chain system that typically operates with low margin rates and utilising the resources towards a Lean System of operation.

The resulting effects on the Economic aspects of Agriculture are rampant. With the losses piling up on the either side of the supply chain, farmers have got no choice but to reluctantly look for other jobs and thus a steep growth in migration from rural to urban regions. This will already put more strain on the already draining productivity of Agri-Economy. The share of employment has already dropped 29% since 1981 to 2019 with more in the corners. Moreover, the Mean Agricultural Revenue has duly fallen 4.5% in the respective period. Since, the deforestation is looming large, the increase in productivity are being matched by use of technologies and integration of process systems that are affordable by a few; while neglecting focus on providing cheaper organic supplements and making a hassle-free process to procure and supply goods.

With many of households already below the BPL line, the climatic effect puts a serious question to the overall existence of agriculture as a sustainable sector for contribution to India’s GDP.



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